L.All year round Although many Southeast Asian nations have been credited with preventing the spread of the 19 major epidemics, they have seen a sharp decline in results. They escaped unharmed this year. Although vaccination may limit the spread and severity of delta diversity in most developed countries, most Southeast Asians still do not wear it. Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Thailand are reporting more than ever. New daily affairs in Vietnam are three times more than the 2020 total.
High frequency indicators indicate that the increase in issues has hit economic activity. Google daily reports that people in Indonesia and Vietnam spend more time at home than they did last winter. The most reliable indicator of the magnitude of the economic impact may come from Malaysia, which was hit by a new outbreak a little earlier than its neighbors. There, the activity index in the manufacturing sector fell to 39.9 in June. This is the lowest since April 2020. (Indicates a decrease of less than 50.)
Linn July 20, Asian Development BankADB) Has responded to growth forecasts for Southeast Asia. Compared to the previous forecast of 4.4%, it is expected to expand by 4% this year. Given the scale of public health damage, that may not be so bad. However, the region is no longer expected to return to the epidemic by the end of 2021. Some countries are suffering more than others. There are few tools to alleviate the pain.
Vietnam is probably very lucky. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is up to 201%. Domestic productionThird-largest in the world after free trade ports from Hong Kong and Singapore. The growing demand for locked-up Western consumer goods has helped the country become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. ADB It has adjusted its growth forecast for 2021 to Vietnam, which is still 5.8% of the region’s highest.
Thailand, on the other hand, has been hit by tourism; They cost about one-fifth of the country Domestic production. The economy shrank more than 6% last year, and ADB Expect only 2% growth this year. In the wake of this devastating economic downturn, Fuket has reopened for some vaccinated foreign tourists, Thai Prime Minister Prait Chan-cha said last month. The decision by the Indonesian government to ease the lockout restrictions on July 26 is still a matter of great concern, but it also shows the difficult elections facing many middle-income countries.
However, reopening at home will not restore economic stability. Recent events have also shattered hopes of resuming tourism in China. Prior to the outbreak, Chinese visitors made up about a quarter to one-third of tourists in Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. Her refusal to open the Beijing border could last until next year or beyond, adding to economic oppression.
Meanwhile, the central banks in the region are accumulating more domestic demand and influencing the epidemic since the outbreak. Last year’s interest rates fell to a record low in most emerging markets. Central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines have joined some of the richest countries in the world, following modernization plans. There seems to be no such thing at this time. In the last month, commodity sales have been accelerating, with currencies in the region stagnating. In May, Thailand hit its biggest debt deficit in eight years, lowering interest rates for fear of losing capital. A more common-19 and smaller policy space combination will bring it back to normal even a few months ago. ■
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This article appeared in the print and finance section of the publication entitled “Hemed In”.